March 2024 CFIB Business Barometer

CFIB’s Business Barometer® long-term index, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, has seen a moderate decrease in March, to reach 52.7. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, gained one point and reached 52.6. Both levels are below historical averages but better than the previous months and similar to last summer readings.

Provincial picture

Most provinces have improved modestly their long-term outlook. Ontario (55.7) has gained slightly in optimism and is the 2nd most confident province after Nova Scotia (59.3). Confidence in  Quebec (49.2) and New Brunswick (49.0) is trending upwards but at slow pace; both provinces are sitting just shy of the 50 mark.  

Sectoral picture

The sectoral picture is more mixed. Some sectors have registered gains (information, arts and recreation +10 points, transportation +5.8 points, professional services +5 points) while others have seen decreases (retail -5.3 points, financial services -3.2 points). The information, arts and recreation sector, followed by the professional services and the finance, insurance and real estate industry are leading in terms of long-term confidence.  

Inflation indicators

Average price increase plans for the next 12 months dropped 0.1 to 2.7%, trending downwards at an even pace. Average wage increase remained largely unchanged at 2.6%. The share of firms planning to make significant price increases (of 5% or more) is decreasing steadily.

The full report can be accessed here.