Business Barometer: Small business confidence markedly buoyant despite dip

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) released its Business Barometer index [for January 2017] showing small business confidence now stands at 60.1. Although optimism has stepped back a little in January from December readings, it is still showing more buoyancy than what we had seen though most of 2015 and 2016.

“It’s a bit of a mixed bag this month, but generally the numbers are holding steady,” said Ted Mallett, Chief Economist at CFIB. “We’re seeing some encouraging signs coming out of the resource-rich provinces, though we are keeping an eye on some other major indicators, like weaker-than-normal employment and capital spending plans.”

Improvements in the outlook among natural resources companies continues—and strength is also found in the manufacturing, professional services and information sectors. Unfortunately, optimism in the consumer-facing sectors—retail, hospitality and personal services—has tailed off, suggesting more caution in that side of the economy.

Regionally, however, conditions are remaining pretty consistent. Quebec business owners are the nation's most optimistic, with an index at 68.6. Owners in Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta and Saskatchewan are considerably less upbeat, but the gap relative to the rest of the country is narrowing. Index levels in the remaining provinces are reasonably positive and tightly bunched in the mid-60s range.

The January Business Barometer is available on the CFIB website.