British Columbia’s Exports Will Rebound Next Year after Modest Gains in 2015: EDC

Lower prices for energy, metals and minerals will produce subdued export growth for British Columbia this year, but stabilizing commodity prices and continued growth in the United States should see the province’s exports increase by six per cent in 2016, according to a new global export forecast released by Export Development Canada (EDC).

The Global Export Forecast Fall 2015 says B.C.’s exports will grow by just one per cent in 2015, restrained by a 21 per cent drop in the value of energy exports and a five per cent decline in metals, ores and other industrial products. All other sectors will see increased exports this year, led by agri-food, which EDC expects will soar by 23 per cent as a result of increased demand from the United States...

Weakness in global commodity prices will bring down the value of B.C.’s exports of metals, ores and other industrial products despite an increase in the volume of those exports. As prices improve in 2016, EDC is forecasting a five per cent increase for this sector.

Forestry, which has seen exceptionally strong growth since the start of the decade, accounts for more than a third of B.C.’s exports. EDC notes that, while the sector is still set to grow by five per cent in both 2015 and 2016, very tight supply conditions caused by the mountain pine beetle infestation and competition from cheaper Russian logs in China will lead to a gradual deceleration of this growth...

[Peter Hall, Chief Economist at EDC] notes that the free trade agreement between Canada and South Korea has not had a significant impact on export figures for this year, but businesses should begin to see some positive effects in the second half of 2016...

View the full report: Global Export Forecast: Fall 2015.